Trump’s Tariffs, Filipino Imports, and the Opportunity Hidden in a Grocery Bag
Friends,
On April 2, President Trump announced a sweeping new trade policy: a 10% universal tariff on all imports, alongside additional country-specific tariffs under a campaign dubbed “Liberation Day.”
The Philippines was hit with a 17% rate—part of a broader move targeting countries the administration claims are engaging in “unfair trade practices.” We rank second lowest among ASEAN nations.
That may be because the U.S. doesn’t view Philippine imports as a significant threat to domestic industries at scale, especially when compared to higher-exporting nations like China or Vietnam. It may also reflect existing trade relationships, economic size, or geopolitical alignment.
Among Southeast Asian countries, Cambodia faces the steepest tariff at 49%, followed by Laos (48%), Vietnam (46%), Myanmar (45%), Thailand (37%), Indonesia (32%), Malaysia (24%) and Brunei (24%). Singapore will be imposed a baseline tariff of 10%.
This is a reshuffling of economic power. A stress test for immigrant families, small businesses, and cultural preservation. And if we’re paying attention, it’s a blinking neon sign that says: Build it here.
Let’s zoom in—what does this actually mean for the average Filipino grocery run?
The Filipino Grocery Basket:
Before vs After Tariffs
Total Pre-Tariff Basket: $12.71
Estimated Post- Tariff Basket: $16.15
That’s a 27% increase- without adding a single extra item.
Note:
While the official tariff on Filipino imports is 17%, the impact to consumers is often higher. Distributors, wholesalers, and retailers typically pass on the cost plus additional margin to cover operations, inflation, and risk.
That’s why in the example above, a grocery basket that once cost $12.71 now totals $16.15—a 27% increase. This reflects both the tariff and an estimated 10% markup to recoup the cost of doing business.
What’s the Political Energy Behind This?
The U.S. government, under President Trump’s “Liberation Day” trade agenda, is positioning these tariffs as a form of economic protectionism. A senior official was quoted saying the new measures aim to “restore American manufacturing and reduce dependency on trade partners that don’t play fair.”
While the Philippines received one of the lowest country-specific tariff rates (17%), it still marks a shift in how the U.S. is recalibrating its trade alliances—even with longtime partners.
On the other side of the Pacific, the Philippine government is treading carefully.
The Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) released a statement urging calm:
“We are currently studying the impact of this policy and will seek clarification through diplomatic channels to ensure Philippine interests are protected.”
The underlying concern in Manila isn’t just the tariff itself—it’s what it signals.
This development may prompt Philippine exporters to recalibrate their U.S.-focused strategies, with renewed interest in ASEAN integration and regional trade pacts.
While Washington frames the move as a strategy for self-reliance, Manila is quietly recalculating, wondering whether to double down and fortify long standing U.S. partnerships, diversify risk through deeper regional alliances, or pursue sustainable growth in emerging markets.
Who Feels This the Most?
First-generation families shopping for essentials
Small Filipino grocers operating on razor-thin margins
Filipino food entrepreneurs relying on imported ingredients for their restaurant menus, products, or pop-ups
What’s the Damage for Consumers?
If your family regularly buys Filipino pantry staples like soy sauce, vinegar, coconut milk, snacks, noodles, and dried goods, you could see an increase of $10–$35 per grocery run. That might not sound like much—until you add it up.
That’s $500–$2000 more per year, just to keep your kitchen tasting like home.
And it won’t stop there. As imports climb in cost, retailers have to make tough choices: raise prices, reduce inventory, or cut back entirely. That means fewer options on shelves, less consistency, and for many—choosing between authenticity and affordability.
How It Hits Mom-and-Pop Grocers
Independent Filipino and Asian grocers—already navigating inflation, rent hikes, and big-box competition—are especially vulnerable.
Most operate on profit margins under 5%. When wholesale costs rise 20–30% overnight, they can’t just absorb the difference. So they either raise prices (and risk losing customers), or slash their product mix (and lose their edge).
In the worst-case/scorched earth scenario? Neighborhood staples disappear altogether. The ones who’ve quietly stocked your banana ketchup, your bagoong, your SkyFlakes when no one else did.
How It Hits Mom-and-Pop Grocers
Independent Filipino and Asian grocers—already navigating inflation, rent hikes, and big-box competition—are especially vulnerable.
Most operate on profit margins under 5%. When wholesale costs rise 20–30% overnight, they can’t just absorb the difference. So they either raise prices (and risk losing customers), or slash their product mix (and lose their edge).
In the worst-case/scorched earth scenario? Neighborhood staples disappear altogether. The ones who’ve quietly stocked your banana ketchup, your bagoong, your SkyFlakes when no one else did.
Five Filipino Staples, Five New Price Tags:
Banana Ketchup
The nostalgic icon of sweet-savory childhood memories. Imported bottles? Expect a shelf price hike of 15–30%. Tariffs stack. Distributors squeeze. Retailers pass the cost down.Dried Mangoes
Your go-to snack or pasalubong just got luxury pricing.Coconut Milk, Oil & Water
The Philippines is a global leader here!Cane Vinegar & Soy Sauce
Core to every adobo, yet vulnerable. If it’s coming from abroad, it’s now a premium product.Polvoron, and Pasalubong Sweets
Nostalgic goods may become scarce from shelves—or double in price.
This Isn’t the End. It’s the Start.
The tariffs will hurt. They’ll shake up retail and may force hard decisions, and it might inspire new, US Filipino food businesses to rise—ones that manufacture domestically, create jobs locally, and preserve flavor without compromising access.
The Bigger Picture:
This isn’t just about groceries. Food creates opportunity. Think about your conversations, celebrations, the comfort you draw from food, and the memories it carries. Food is one of the most powerful ways we connect; Arguably the most valuable of all social currencies.
One reason I believe Filipino food is having its moment is because the opportunities to build connections around it are expanding—in restaurants, in products, in books, and beyond. But with rising tariffs, access to imported goods is at risk. And when that access shrinks, so does our momentum. So does our power. That’s what concerns me.
In uncertain times, resourcefulness becomes a superpower. When the ground feels unsteady, we look inward—toward what we can grow, make, and sustain ourselves. And in that shift, innovation often takes root. What begins as a workaround can spark the next wave of progress.
That’s where we are now. As imports potentially become harder to rely on, a new lane is opening—one where Filipino brands made on US soil can lead with purpose. Not as stand-ins, but as an additional standard. Not following trends, but defining them.
What Happens Next?
Distribution channels shift. Consumer tastes evolve. Markets emerge. Product innovation commences.
Beep Beep!
Nicole
Tagalog Word of the Day:
HARANA
Harana is a beautiful Tagalog word that refers to a traditional Filipino serenade—a romantic gesture where someone (usually a man) sings love songs to woo someone (usually a woman), often performed outside her window at night, sometimes accompanied by a guitar.
April 4, 2025
Newsletter #46